Long-term Impact Evaluation of Early Interventions through Transmission of Skills

Over the past two decades, the socio-economic literature has underlined and empirically shown the importance of investing in the early development of children for their later life achievements. In response to these findings, governments and foundations have progressively allocated resources to preschool initiatives, promoting the utilization of formal childcare, encouraging access to libraries and playrooms, and facilitating gatherings for children and parents to enhance parenting skills. While the immediate effects of many of these policies are often assessed, evaluating their long-term impacts poses significant challenges due to associated costs and logistical complexities. In this paper, we utilize data from the Millennium Cohort Study (UK) to explore the transmission of skills from childhood to adolescence, revealing significant connections over time. This analysis enables us to introduce a valuable tool for policymakers and evaluators of children's programs, highlighting key outcome variables for impact assessment and the prediction of long-term effects. Furthermore, we discuss the - actual and predicted - long-term impacts of physical activity and screen time on children.