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Old But Gold: Historical Pathways and Path Dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Diogo Baerlocher

    (University of South Florida)

  • Diego Firmino

    (Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco)

  • Guilherme Lambais

    (Lusíada University of Lisbon)

  • Eustaquio Reis

    (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada)

  • Henrique Veras

    (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco)

Abstract

Following the discovery of gold in 1694 in Brazil, pathways were constructed to connect coastal settlements to mining regions in the unpopulated interior. While these pathways initially facilitated the creation of road towns, their influence faded by the late nineteenth century. With the mid-twentieth-century demographic and industrial transition, regions with higher historical road density experienced renewed population growth and greater migrant inflows. We argue that this resurgence reflects the role of road towns in fostering early urbanization and structural transformation. Using an extended Rosen-Roback-Glaeser framework, we estimate strong agglomeration spillovers, suggesting that Brazil’s spatial economy exhibits multiple steady states and historical path dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Diogo Baerlocher & Diego Firmino & Guilherme Lambais & Eustaquio Reis & Henrique Veras, 2025. "Old But Gold: Historical Pathways and Path Dependence," Working Papers 2025-01, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:usf:wpaper:2025-01
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    File URL: https://www.usf.edu/arts-sciences/departments/economics/documents/wpaper/2025-01.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Historical Roads; Geography; Multiple Equilibria; Path Dependence; Persistence; Population Density;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • N96 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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