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Assessment of the contribution of the unobserved economy to the macroeconomic indicators of the regions of the Russian Federation

Author

Listed:
  • Kiselev Sergei

    (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Samsonov Valery

    (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Seitov Sanat

    (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Filimonov Ilya

    (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of the results of unobserved economic activity on the value of the main macroeconomic indicator at the regional level in the Russian Federation – the gross regional product. The article uses the definition of the category "unobservable economy", first formally formulated in the 1993 SNA, developed by the UN Statistical Commission. Based on it, a statistical assessment of the shadow economy in the subjects of the Russian Federation from 2010 to 2020 was carried out by improving the existing methodology of Rosstat due to the fact that at the regional level, the GVA is not adjusted for operations that are not observed by direct statistical methods. The relative scales of the unobservable component were measured, i.e. its share in GRP in 80 subjects of the Russian Federation. The calculations refuted the main hypothesis that Moscow has the largest relative scale of the unobserved economy. For example, in 2020, the Sakha Republic turned out to be such a region of Russia (36.6% against the federal 13.0%).certain students were randomly included in the control group and the treatment group.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiselev Sergei & Samsonov Valery & Seitov Sanat & Filimonov Ilya, 2023. "Assessment of the contribution of the unobserved economy to the macroeconomic indicators of the regions of the Russian Federation," Working Papers 0051, Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:upa:wpaper:0051
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unobserved economy; gross regional product;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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