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Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Di Maio
  • Patricia Justino
  • Valerio Leone Sciabolazza
  • Cecilia Nardi

Abstract

We show that the Russia-Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Di Maio & Patricia Justino & Valerio Leone Sciabolazza & Cecilia Nardi, 2024. "Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2024-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eoin McGuirk & Marshall Burke, 2020. "The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3940-3997.
    2. Blair, Graeme & Christensen, Darin & Rudkin, Aaron, 2021. "Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflict? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(2), pages 709-716, May.
    3. Samuel Bazzi & Christopher Blattman, 2014. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 1-38, October.
    4. Amodio, Francesco & Baccini, Leonardo & Chiovelli, Giorgio & Di Maio, Michele, 2023. "Trade Liberalization, Economic Activity, and Political Violence in the Global South: Evidence from PTAs," CEPR Discussion Papers 18037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    War; Commodity shocks; Trade; Political violence; Agricultural market performance; Asia;
    All these keywords.

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