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Pandemics and their impact on oil and metal prices

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  • Tony Addison
  • Atanu Ghoshray

Abstract

We examine the effect of pandemics on selected commodity prices—in particular, those of zinc, copper, lead, and oil. We set up a vector autoregressive model and analyse data since the mid-nineteenth century to determine how prices reacted to pandemics such as the 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957 Asian Flu, and 1968 Hong Kong Flu. We control for demand and supply fundamentals to generate forecasts from the point of outbreak, and we consider whether any pattern can be deduced in reactions to adverse global shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Addison & Atanu Ghoshray, 2020. "Pandemics and their impact on oil and metal prices," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-157, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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