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The IMF Model and Resource-Abundant Transition Economies: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

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  • Richard M. Auty

Abstract

The IMF model of the economic transition stresses the role of macro policy reform. It concludes that rapid reform to a market economy is preferable to slow reform because late reformers experience very steep transition recessions and severe contractions in government revenues. However, the predictive power of the IMF model has weakened through the late-1990s. This is because it under-estimates the role of initial conditions that include the natural resource endowment as well as institutional capital and the legacy of produced capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard M. Auty, 1999. "The IMF Model and Resource-Abundant Transition Economies: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1999-169, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-1999-169
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp169.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Auty, R. M., 2001. "Transition reform in the mineral-rich Caspian region countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 25-32, March.
    2. Akhmetov, Almaz, 2017. "Testing the Presence of the Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan," MPRA Paper 77936, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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