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A comparative study of the forecasting performance of three international organizations

Author

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  • Pingfan Hong
  • Zhibo Tan

Abstract

This article evaluates and compares the forecasting performance of three international organizations: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The annual forecasts made by the United Nations in the period of 1981-2011 are found to be fairly robust, in terms of bias and efficiency. In comparison, the forecasting performance of the United Nations is found to be marginally better than the other two organizations during the period of 2000-2012. However, the forecasts of all these organizations missed the Great Recession of 2009 by a large margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Pingfan Hong & Zhibo Tan, 2014. "A comparative study of the forecasting performance of three international organizations," Working Papers 133, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    • Handle: RePEc:une:wpaper:133
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    File URL: http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2014/
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    Cited by:

    1. Ullrich Heilemann & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Wenig Unterschiede – Zur Treffsicherheit Internationaler Prognosen und Prognostiker [Few differences—on the accuracy of international forecasts and forecaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 195-233, December.
    2. Christopher Allsopp & David Vines, 2015. "Monetary and fiscal policy in the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 134-167.
    3. Evangelia Kasimati & Nikolaos Veraros, 2018. "Accuracy of forward freight agreements in forecasting future freight rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 743-756, February.
    4. Rajesh, Raj & Srivastava, Vineet, 2020. "GDP Growth Forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India – A Performance Assessment," MPRA Paper 104131, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Oct 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    evaluation of forecasts; forecasting errors; macroeconomic forecasting; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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