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Peak Energy and the Limits to China’s Economic Growth: Prospect of Energy Supply and Economic Growth from Now to 2050

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  • Minqi Li

Abstract

This working paper evaluates the prospects for China’s energy supply and its impact on economic growth between 2008 and 2050. After considering China’s domestic potential of coal, oil, and gas production, the potential of energy imports from the rest of the world, as well as potential developments of renewable and nuclear energy, the author finds that China is likely to face an insurmountable energy crisis beyond 2020. Even with optimistic assumptions, drastic declines in the economic growth rate and the eventual end of economic growth cannot be avoided.

Suggested Citation

  • Minqi Li, 2008. "Peak Energy and the Limits to China’s Economic Growth: Prospect of Energy Supply and Economic Growth from Now to 2050," Working Papers wp189, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    • Handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp189
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    File URL: https://per.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_151-200/WP189.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Massetti, 2011. "Carbon tax scenarios for China and India: exploring politically feasible mitigation goals," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 209-227, September.
    2. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 204-214.
    3. Massimo Tavoni & Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro, 2009. "Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action," Working Papers 2009.53, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Xibo Wang & Mingtao Yao & Jiashuo Li & Kexue Zhang & He Zhu & Minsi Zheng, 2017. "China’s Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Peak Oil; Peak Coal; Energy Crisis; Limits to Growth; Chinese Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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