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Comptabilité générationnelle et vieillissement démographique: les enseignements d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable calibré pour la Belgique

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  • Frédéric Docquier
  • Philippe Liégeois
  • Jean-Philippe Stijns

Abstract

In most developed countries, the age distribution of the population is shifting rapidly towards the elderly. If transfers and the tax schedule are unchanged, future generations will then have to bear an increased charge and, consequently, they could be deprived. Dans la plupart des pays développés, un vieillissement démographique important s’annonce. À politique économique inchangée, ce vieillissement générera un accroissement important des charges supportées par les individus jeunes et actifs, présents et à venir, et donc une détérioration de la situation des générations futures. Dans ce débat, la comptabilité générationnelle d’Auerbach et al. (1991, 1994) et Kotlikoff (1992) occupe une place prépondérante. Elle permet, en effet, de comparer le bilan fiscal moyen des générations à venir avec la charge supportée par les générations actuelles.
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  • Frédéric Docquier & Philippe Liégeois & Jean-Philippe Stijns, 1999. "Comptabilité générationnelle et vieillissement démographique: les enseignements d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable calibré pour la Belgique," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/230710, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/230710
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    1. Frederic Docquier & Philippe Ligeois, 2000. "Simulating Computable Overlapping Generations Models With Troll," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 246, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    3. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-791, September.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
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