A Relação do Setor Sucroalcooleiro e o Preço da Terra Agrícola em Goiás e em Minas Gerais

According to economic theory, the land price should portray the revenue stream that the asset can generate in a specific period discounted at a interest rate, as well as the activity of speculation (store of value) with its recovery time. However, the literature shows that at certain times in Brazil, determinants of land prices behaved beyond the interest rate and the flow of revenue from such assets. For instance, from 2003, with the encouragement ethanol production in the country, it was observed an expansion of sugarcane sector in some states and the reconfiguration agriculture, mainly grain producing regions of high productivity, thus altering the price of land in these regions. Therefore, this study aims to examine whether any influence of alcohol sector exists in the dynamics of the price of high productivity land in the states of Goiás and Minas Gerais. For this, a model was estimate on panel data over the period 2003- 2012. It was adopt as explanatory variables: the presence of plants, planted area, productivity and value of production of sugarcane, soybeans and corn. The results showed that the price ofland is strongly related to income obtainable by this factor; and that increased productivity would lead to an increase in income from the land and may make it more attractive, increasing its demand and so valuing it.