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Heterogeneity in preferences towards complexity

Author

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  • Peter G. Moffatt

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Stefania Sitzia

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Daniel John Zizzo

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

We analyze lottery-choice data in a way that separately estimates the effects of risk aversion and complexity aversion, and allows both both of these to vary between individuals, and also to change with experience. The data is from an experiment in which 80 subjects engage in a sequence of 54 choices between pairs of lotteries. The lotteries always have the same expected value, but they differ in terms of variance and the level of complexity. Complexity is represented by the number of different outcomes in the lottery, and is either 1 (sure win), 3 (simple), 6 (complex) or 27 (very complex). A finite mixture random effects model is estimated which assumes that a proportion of the population are complexity neutral, and we find that around 32% of the population are complexity neutral. In those subjects who do react to complexity, there is a bias towards complexity aversion at the start of the experiment, but complexity aversion reduces with experience, to the extent that the average subject is complexity neutral by the end of the experiment. Around 23% of subjects appear complexity loving. Some of these findings are consistent with switching patterns seen in the choice data. Complexity aversion is found to increase with age, and is found to be higher for non-UK students than for UK students.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter G. Moffatt & Stefania Sitzia & Daniel John Zizzo, 2014. "Heterogeneity in preferences towards complexity," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science (CBESS) 14-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    • Handle: RePEc:uea:wcbess:14-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Oberholzer, Yvonne & Olschewski, Sebastian & Scheibehenne, Benjamin, 2024. "Complexity aversion in risky choices and valuations: Moderators and possible causes," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Valenzuela-Stookey, Quitzé, 2023. "Subjective complexity under uncertainty," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 76-93.
    4. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti, 2023. "Unraveling Ambiguity Aversion," Post-Print hal-04370668, HAL.
    5. Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán González, 2023. "On The Appeal Of Complexity," Working Papers 2312, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    6. Florian H. Schneider & Martin Schonger, 2019. "An Experimental Test of the Anscombe–Aumann Monotonicity Axiom," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1667-1677, April.
    7. Ilke AYDOGAN & Loïc BERGER & Vincent THEROUDE, 2023. "More Ambiguous or More Complex? An Investigation of Individual Preferences under Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023-iRisk-02, IESEG School of Management.
    8. Wakker, Peter P., 2023. "A criticism of Bernheim & Sprenger's (2020) tests of rank dependence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Arts, Sara & Ong, Qiyan & Qiu, Jianying, 2020. "Measuring subjective decision confidence," MPRA Paper 117907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Konstantinos Georgalos & Nathan Nabil, 2023. "Heuristics Unveiled," Working Papers 400814162, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    11. Arts, Sara & Ong, Qiyan & Qiu, Jianying, 2020. "Measuring subjective decision confidence," MPRA Paper 106811, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Vincent Théroude, 2023. "More Ambiguous or More Complex? An Investigation of Individual Preferences under Uncertainty," Working Papers of BETA 2023-10, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    13. Valenzuela-Stookey, Quitzé, 2023. "Subjective complexity under uncertainty," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4mz932j6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    14. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-04071242 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chabakauri, Georgy & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2020. "Asset pricing with index investing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118895, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Konstantinos Georgalos & Nathan Nabil, 2023. "Testing Models of Complexity Aversion," Working Papers 400814269, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    17. Yuan Gu & Chao Hung Chan, 2024. "Complexity Aversion," Papers 2406.18463, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    complexity aversion; complexity preferences; risk preferences; mixture models; learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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