Workshop report on European air transport scenarios

The aim of this small workshop of invited participants was to consider the prospects for the development of European air transport over the next two decades. It forms part of the air transport component of the EU's 4th Framework Programme's project MINIMISE (Managing Interoperability by Improvements in Transport System Organisation in Europe) and seeks to provide some expert views on how air transport policy at the Union level will need to evolve in order to meet the challenges of achieving optimal interoperability in the medium term. The overall project is multimodal in its orientation but this workshop touches upon other modes only in so far as they are relevant for the development of interoperability in the air transport sector. Interoperability can be defined in terms of reducing excessive impediments to the optimal efficiency with which various providers and users of passenger and freight transport can interact. The aim of the workshop was to provide for a wide ranging discussion, focused around a number of predetermined issues. These issues are -Development of external EU air transport relations -Policy regarding strategic airline alliances -Criteria for awarding subsidies for social based air services -Policy on predatory behaviour by airlines -The development of EU air cargo transport -Charging for the use of EU air transport infrastructure -Criteria for investing in new EU airport capacity. -The creation of improved air traffic management -Integration air transport with other modes The aim is not to come up with a blue print as to how these and other issues may be resolved but rather to consider how the adoption of different policy options within a variety of alternative futures (e.g. a larger EU area, faster or slower economic growth) will impact on EU air transport. The number of futures to be considered is very small, and involved taking just one or two extreme possibilities alongside an 'Expected Future'. The workshop took place at the Bartlett School, University College, London, UK, on 19th December 1997, and involved a small number of invited attendees. This report sets out the workshop’s discussions. Participants were not expected to produce any documentation, the report being written and revised in the light of participant feedback, by MINIMISE members.