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Estimación de los Flujos de Transporte de Mercancías Interregionales Trimestrales mediante Técnicas de Interpolación Temporal

Author

Listed:
  • Gallego López, Nuria

    (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica). Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

  • Llano, Carlos

    (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica). Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

  • Pérez García, Julian

    (Departamento de Economía Aplicada. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)

Abstract

En el presente artículo se presenta la metodología y los resultados obtenidos en la trimestralización de los flujos de mercancías dentro de España. Partiendo de los datos anuales de movimientos de mercancías (1995-2007) según los principales modos de transporte disponibles en la base de datos C-intereg, se estiman los correspondientes vectores de movimientos de mercancías intra e interregionales de cada región con el Resto de España, en unidades físicas (toneladas) para el periodo 1995.I-2009.II. Para ello se utilizan métodos de interpolación y extrapolación temporal de carácter uni-variante Chow-Lin (1971) y multivariante Denton, (1971); Di Fonzo, (1994), aplicados sobre indicadores de alta frecuencia relativos a los movimientos de mercancías en España. Los resultados obtenidos son analizados en comparación con otros indicadores trimestrales de referencia, y la capacidad de predicción del método es evaluada mediante el MAPE para el último año con datos observados (2007).

Suggested Citation

  • Gallego López, Nuria & Llano, Carlos & Pérez García, Julian, 2010. "Estimación de los Flujos de Transporte de Mercancías Interregionales Trimestrales mediante Técnicas de Interpolación Temporal," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2010/03, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    • Handle: RePEc:uam:wpaper:201003
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    Cited by:

    1. Lemos Nabais, João & Batista, Carlos & Ayala Botto, Miguel & Cordón Lagares, Encarnación, 2018. "Computational Framework for Port Community Systems Towards Synchromodal Freight Networks /Marco computacional para los sistemas comunitarios portuarios hacia redes de transporte de mercancías sincromo," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 691-714, Septiembr.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    comercio interregional; flujos de transporte; métodos de interpolación temporal; método chow-lin.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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