The relation of GDP per capita with energy and CO2 emissions in Colombia

We analyze the relation of CO2 emissions per capita and primary energy per capita with GDP per capita and other relevant variables, for the period 1971–2011. Two dynamic econometric partial adjustment models are estimated using data from the International Energy Agency. The results suggest a relation that is compatible with the hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve, and whose turning points are within the range of the sample, reflecting a change in the relations between both indicators and GDP per capita. Several factors explain this change, the policies applied during the period being crucial. We compute the trajectory of the elasticities of these environmental pressures with respect to GDP, which decline significantly over time. We develop a new method, better fitted for asymmetric distributions, to compute the confidence intervals of these elasticities. Some determinants of the reduction of these environmental pressures are the change in the composition of primary energy sources, which entailed both primary energy savings and a reduction in CO2 emissions, as well as the favorable impact of the regulations imposed by the government aimed at controlling CO2 emissions from the transport and industrial sectors. The results provide important insights for the design of environmental and energy policies in developing countries to allow economic and social improvement without further growth in energy use and emissions.