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Rischio e incertezza in finanza: classificazione e logiche di gestione

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  • Luca Erzegovesi

    (DISA, Faculty of Economics, Trento University)

Abstract

Il paper si propone di inquadrare i principali approcci elaborati dalla teoria e dalla prassi operativa per definire, misurare e controllare i fenomeni aleatori che interessano gli intermediari finanziari. Nella prima parte si propone uno schema di classificazione dei fenomeni aleatori, basata sulla contrapposizione tra rischio, prezzato secondo le teorie del CAPM e dell'arbitrage pricing, e aleatorietà endogena, o incertezza, affrontata secondo approcci e visioni più eclettiche quali l'analisi tecnico-grafica e la teoria dei sistemi complessi. Si sottolinea come l'aleatorietà endogena sia prodotta dall'interazione riflessiva tra variazioni dei prezzi, attese e intervento degli operatori sul mercato. A ciascuna tipologia di alea individuata si cerca infine di abbinare il corretto approccio gestionale. Il paper ripropone, con lievi modificazioni, un lavoro non pubblicato dell'autore del 1992.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Erzegovesi, 1999. "Rischio e incertezza in finanza: classificazione e logiche di gestione," Alea Tech Reports 006, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:trt:aleatr:006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Hsieh, David A, 1991. "Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
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    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. Alessandro Beber, 1999. "Il dibattito su dignità ed efficacia dell'analisi tecnica nell'economia finanziaria," Alea Tech Reports 003, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
    7. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. "Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-1029, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Bee, 2001. "Mixture models for VaR and stress testing," Alea Tech Reports 012, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
    2. Marco Filagrana, 2002. "Il model risk nella gestione dei rischi di mercato," Alea Tech Reports 015, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
    3. Gianni Degasperi & Luca Erzegovesi, 1999. "I mercati finanziari come sistemi complessi: il modello di Vaga," Alea Tech Reports 007, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
    4. Luca Erzegovesi, 2002. "VaR and Liquidity Risk.Impact on Market Behaviour and Measurement Issues," Alea Tech Reports 014, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008.
    5. Enrico Zaninotto & Alessandro Rossi & Loris Gaio, 1999. "Stochastic learning in coordination games: a simulation approach," Quaderni DISA 015, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 29 Jun 2003.

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