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Reproduction of Scientific Basis for “Reducing Contact by 80%â€

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  • Yasushi Iwamoto

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper aims to reproduce the results of the mathematical model of infectious diseases that provided the scientific basis for the “Reducing Contacts by 80%,†which was one of state of emergency measures in the spring of 2020. Since some results were successfully reproduced from publicly available information, the overall calculations were correct. However, some figures were presented in which newly infected persons and infected persons were confused. Since the variables were mixed up, the internal validity of the analysis is lacking. While this paper does not address the real-world validity of the model, it is “incorrect†scientific advice in the sense that it lacks internal validity. To avoid similar situations in the future, it will be necessary to have a system in place to check the analysis by a larger group of experts.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasushi Iwamoto, "undated". "Reproduction of Scientific Basis for “Reducing Contact by 80%†," CIRJE J-Series CIRJE-J-307, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:jseres:2023cj307
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2023/2023cj307.pdf
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