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Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches

Author

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  • Cervený, Jakub

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • van Ours, Jan

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • van Tuijl, Martin

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
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Suggested Citation

  • Cervený, Jakub & van Ours, Jan & van Tuijl, Martin, 2016. "Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches," Discussion Paper 2016-031, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:0801d15e-57b6-4e14-a6b9-4a245fc257d9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mario Mechtel & Agnes Bäker & Tobias Brändle & Karin Vetter, 2011. "Red Cards," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(6), pages 621-646, December.
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    6. Vecer Jan & Kopriva Frantisek & Ichiba Tomoyuki, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of the Red Card in Soccer: When to Commit an Offense in Exchange for Preventing a Goal Opportunity," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Caliendo, Marco & Radic, Dubravko, 2006. "Ten Do It Better, Do They? An Empirical Analysis of an Old Football Myth," IZA Discussion Papers 2158, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    9. Mechtel, Mario & Brändle, Tobias & Stribeck, Agnes & Vetter, Karin, 2010. "Red Cards: Not Such Bad News For Penalized Guest Teams," MPRA Paper 21430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitry Dagaev & Sofia Paklina & J. James Reade & Carl Singleton, 2024. "The Iron Curtain and Referee Bias in International Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 126-151, January.
    2. Llorenç Badiella & Pedro Puig & Carlos Lago-Peñas & Martí Casals, 2023. "Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 149-165, June.
    3. De Meyere, Arne & Vanruymbeke, Ward & Baert, Stijn, 2018. "Player Dismissal and Full Time Results in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League," IZA Discussion Papers 11722, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    assocation football; goal-scoring; red card; world cup foorball matches;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z29 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Other

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