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Kullback-Leibler-based characterizations of score-driven updates

Author

Listed:
  • Ramon de Punder

    (University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

  • Timo Dimitriadis

    (Heidelberg University and Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies)

  • Rutger-Jan Lange

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

Score-driven models have been applied in some 400 published articles over the last decade. Much of this literature cites the optimality result in Blasques et al. (2015), which, roughly, states that sufficiently small score-driven updates are unique in locally reducing the Kullback-Leibler divergence relative to the true density for every observation. This is at odds with other well-known optimality results; the Kalman filter, for example, is optimal in a mean-squared-error sense, but occasionally moves away from the true state. We show that score-driven updates are, similarly, not guaranteed to improve the localized Kullback-Leibler divergence at every observation. The seemingly stronger result in Blasques et al. (2015) is due to their use of an improper (localized) scoring rule. Even as a guaranteed improvement for every observation is unattainable, we prove that sufficiently small score-driven updates are unique in reducing the Kullback-Leibler divergence relative to the true density in expectation. This positive, albeit weaker, result justifies the continued use of score-driven models and places their information-theoretic properties on solid footing. In our numerical study, when there is less uncertainty: the second-best and third-best tolls achieve welfares closer to that of the first-best toll, and the three schemes become identical without uncertainty. As the degree of uncertainty falls, the uniform and single-step tolls attain higher welfare gains. Also, when demand becomes more price-sensitive, the uniform and single-step tolls attain relatively higher welfare gains. Our step toll would lower the generalised price without uncertainty but raises it in our stochastic setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon de Punder & Timo Dimitriadis & Rutger-Jan Lange, 2024. "Kullback-Leibler-based characterizations of score-driven updates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-051/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 22 Oct 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240051
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F. Blasques & S. J. Koopman & A. Lucas, 2015. "Information-theoretic optimality of observation-driven time series models for continuous responses," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 102(2), pages 325-343.
    2. Blasques, F. & Gorgi, P. & Koopman, S.J., 2019. "Accelerating score-driven time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 359-376.
    3. Yurii Nesterov, 2018. "Lectures on Convex Optimization," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-319-91578-4, June.
    4. Blasques, Francisco & Lucas, André & van Vlodrop, Andries C., 2021. "Finite Sample Optimality of Score-Driven Volatility Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 47-57.
    5. Tilmann Gneiting & Roopesh Ranjan, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422, July.
    6. Blasques, F. & Francq, Christian & Laurent, Sébastien, 2023. "Quasi score-driven models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 251-275.
    7. Creal, Drew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André & Zamojski, Marcin, 2024. "Observation-driven filtering of time-varying parameters using moment conditions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    8. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    9. Vladimír Holý & Petra Tomanová, 2022. "Modeling price clustering in high-frequency prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(9), pages 1649-1663, September.
    10. Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Enzo D’Innocenzo & Andrea Guizzardi, 2024. "Score-Driven Modeling with Jumps: An Application to S&P500 Returns and Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 375-406.
    11. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
    12. Rutger-Jan Lange & Bram van Os & Dick van Dijk, 2022. "Implicit score-driven filters for time-varying parameter models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-066/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Jun 2024.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    14. Gneiting, Tilmann & Ranjan, Roopesh, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422.
    15. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2011. "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 215-230, August.
    16. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2013. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Models With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 777-795, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    generalized autoregressive score (GAS); dynamic conditional score (DCS); Kullback Leibler; censoring; scoring rule; divergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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