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What Option Prices tell us about the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Stan Olijslagers

    (UvA)

  • Annelie Petersen

    (DNB)

  • Nander de Vette

    (DNB)

  • Sweder (S.J.G.) van Wijnbergen

    (UvA, CEPR, DNB)

Abstract

We use a series of different approaches to extract information about crash risk from option prices for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate, with each step sharpening the focus on extracting more specific measures of crash risk around dates of ECB measures of Unconventional Monetary Policy. Several messages emerge from the analysis. Announcing policies in general terms without precisely describing what exactly they entail does not move asset markets or actually increases crash risk. Also, policies directly focused on changing relative asset supplies do seem to have an impact, while measures aiming at easing financing costs of commercial banks do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Stan Olijslagers & Annelie Petersen & Nander de Vette & Sweder (S.J.G.) van Wijnbergen, 2018. "What Option Prices tell us about the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-096/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20180096
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shan Lu, 2019. "Monte Carlo analysis of methods for extracting risk‐neutral densities with affine jump diffusions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1587-1612, December.
    2. Irma Alonso & Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello-Sebastià, 2021. "The impact of heterogeneous unconventional monetary policies on the expectations of market crashes," Working Papers 2127, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative Easing; Unconventional Monetary Policies; Exchange Rate Crash Risk; risk reversals; mixed diffusion jump risk models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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