IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20110101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Winning by Losing: Evidence on Overbidding in Mergers

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrike Malmendier

    (UC Berkeley, and NBER)

  • Enrico Moretti

    (UC Berkeley, and NBER)

  • Florian Peters

    (Duisenberg school of finance, and University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

Do shareholders of acquiring companies profit from acquisitions, or do acquiring CEOs overbidand destroy shareholder value? Answering this question is difficult since the hypotheticalcounterfactual is hard to determine. We exploit merger contests to address the identificationissue. In those cases where, ex ante, at least two bidders had a significant chance at winningthe contest, the post-merger performance of the loser allows calculating the counterfactualperformance of the winner without the merger. In a novel data set of merger contests since1985, we find that the returns of bidders are closely aligned before the merger contest, butdiverge afterwards. In the sample where the loser had a significant chance to win, winnersunderperform losers by 48 percent over the following three years. Our results also imply thatannouncement returns fail to provide an informative estimate of the causal effect of mergersin our sample. Existing measures of long-run abnormal returns tend to underestimate thenegative return implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrike Malmendier & Enrico Moretti & Florian Peters, 2011. "Winning by Losing: Evidence on Overbidding in Mergers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-101/2/DSF25, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20110101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/11101.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell, Mark L & Stafford, Erik, 2000. "Managerial Decisions and Long-Term Stock Price Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 287-329, July.
    2. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1990. "Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 31-48, March.
    3. Stephen W. Salant & Sheldon Switzer & Robert J. Reynolds, 1983. "Losses From Horizontal Merger: The Effects of an Exogenous Change in Industry Structure on Cournot-Nash Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(2), pages 185-199.
    4. Michael Greenstone & Richard Hornbeck & Enrico Moretti, 2010. "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 536-598, June.
    5. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    6. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    7. Perry, Martin K & Porter, Robert H, 1985. "Oligopoly and the Incentive for Horizontal Merger," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 219-227, March.
    8. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2003. "Stock market driven acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 295-311, December.
    9. Loughran, Tim & Vijh, Anand M, 1997. "Do Long-Term Shareholders Benefit from Corporate Acquisitions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1765-1790, December.
    10. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    11. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    12. John D. Lyon & Brad M. Barber & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 1999. "Improved Methods for Tests of Long‐Run Abnormal Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 165-201, February.
    13. Michael Greenstone & Enrico Moretti, 2003. "Bidding for Industrial Plants: Does Winning a 'Million Dollar Plant' Increase Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 9844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Audra L. Boone & J. Harold Mulherin, 2007. "How Are Firms Sold?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 847-875, April.
    15. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
    16. Moeller, Sara B. & Schlingemann, Frederik P. & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Firm size and the gains from acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 201-228, August.
    17. Pavel G. Savor & Qi Lu, 2009. "Do Stock Mergers Create Value for Acquirers?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1061-1097, June.
    18. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:31-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Roll, Richard, 1986. "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 197-216, April.
    20. Harford, Jarrad, 2005. "What drives merger waves?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 529-560, September.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2685-2718 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Raghavendra Rau, P. & Vermaelen, Theo, 1998. "Glamour, value and the post-acquisition performance of acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 223-253, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ulrike Malmendier & Enrico Moretti & Florian S Peters, 2018. "Winning by Losing: Evidence on the Long-run Effects of Mergers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 3212-3264.
    2. Andrey Golubov & Dimitris Petmezas & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2013. "Empirical mergers and acquisitions research: a review of methods, evidence and managerial implications," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 12, pages 287-313, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Bruyland, Evy & Lasfer, Meziane & De Maeseneire, Wouter & Song, Wei, 2019. "The performance of acquisitions by high default risk bidders," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 37-58.
    4. Renneboog, Luc & Vansteenkiste, Cara, 2019. "Failure and success in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 650-699.
    5. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Takeover Waves : Triggers, Performance and Motives," Discussion Paper 2005-029, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    6. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. An, Suwei, 2023. "Essays on incentive contracts, M&As, and firm risk," Other publications TiSEM dd97d2f5-1c9d-47c5-ba62-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Lien Duong & Izan H. Y. Izan, 2012. "Consequences of Riding Takeover Waves: A ustralian Evidence," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 399-434, December.
    11. Ma, Qingzhong & Whidbee, David A. & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Acquirer reference prices and acquisition performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 175-199.
    12. Li, Lin & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2018. "Information uncertainty and target valuation in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 84-107.
    13. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
    14. Liu, Xin & Yin, Chengxi & Zheng, Weinan, 2021. "The invisible burden," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Vermaelen, Theo & Xu, Moqi, 2014. "Acquisition finance and market timing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-91.
    16. Bhagat, Sanjai & Dong, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Noah, Robert, 2005. "Do tender offers create value? New methods and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 3-60, April.
    17. Eckbo, B. Espen, 2009. "Bidding strategies and takeover premiums: A review," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-178, February.
    18. Gao, Ning, 2011. "The adverse selection effect of corporate cash reserve: Evidence from acquisitions solely financed by stock," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 789-808, September.
    19. Qingzhong Ma, 2013. "Investment banks advising takeover targets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 339-374, July.
    20. Min Du & Agyenim Boateng & David Newton, 2016. "The impact of state ownership, formal institutions and resource seeking on acquirers’ returns of Chinese M&A," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 159-178, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mergers; Acquisitions; Misvaluation; Counterfactual;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20110101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.