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Derived Measurement in Macroeconomics: Two Approaches for Measuring the NAIRU Considered

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  • Peter Rodenburg

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

This paper investigates two different procedures for the measurement of the NAIRU; one based on structural modeling while the other is a statisticai approach using Vector Auto Regression (VAR)-models. Both measurement procedures are assessed by confronting them with the dominant theory of measurement, the Representation Theory of Measurement, which states that for sound measurement a strict isomorphism (strict one-to-one mapping) is needed between variations in the phenomenon (the NAIRU) and numbers.The paper argues that shifts of the Phillips-curve are not a problem for the structural approach to measurement of the NAIRU, as the NAIRU itself is a time-varying concept. It is however, the impossibility to identify the exact shape of the Phillips-curve that causes problems of multiple empirical, relational forms and hence non-unique isomorphic mappings for measurement. While VAR-models are being accused of being ‘atheoretical macroeconometrics’ in the literature, the Wold decomposition theorem applied to the VAR brings out a stable correspondence between variance of the phenomenon (the NAIRU) and numbers and turns the set of equations into an isomorphic mapping that can serve as a useful foundation for the construction of a measuring instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Rodenburg, 2007. "Derived Measurement in Macroeconomics: Two Approaches for Measuring the NAIRU Considered," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-017/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20070017
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    Cited by:

    1. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; Phillips curve; VAR-models; Measurement in macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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