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Modelling and Estimating Modal Share in European Transport

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  • Giovanni Russo

    (Utrecht University)

  • Aura Reggiani

    (Bologna University)

  • Peter Nijkamp

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

International and interregional trade and transport are on the rise and hence, there is a clear needfor reliable estimates of transport flows. However, the available databases and estimation methodsare not yet satisfactory for analytical and predictive purposes.In this paper we explore the use of different statistical techniques in order to examine the spatialflow pattern of freight transport among competing transport modes.Freight transport has specific peculiarities that are different from passenger transport. We arguethat a logit model, the most commonly used technique in the empirical analysis of passengerflows, is not always appropriate for the analysis of freight flows, unless the interdependencebetween the decision making regarding the shipment of individual units of freight belonging tothe same shipment is correctly modelled.In the paper, we will focus on the analysis of aggregate freight transport flows of the type thatmay be generated from conventional spatial interaction models. In particular, adjusted estimationtechniques alternative to the logit model will be employed to analyze the transport flows of twoproducts, chemical products and foodstuffs, based on an European interregional data set.We will conclude the paper by discussing various caveats encountered during the empiricalanalysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Russo & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2001. "Modelling and Estimating Modal Share in European Transport," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-095/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20010095
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    1. Jacob B. Polak & Arnold Heertje (ed.), 2000. "Analytical Transport Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1465.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Tsang, Wai Fai, 2004. "Comparative modelling of interregional transport flows: Applications to multimodal European freight transport," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(3), pages 584-602, June.

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