Foresighting for Inclusive Development

We propose that foresight can contribute to inclusive development by making innovation policy processes more inclusive, which in turn makes innovation systems more inclusive. Processes of developing future-oriented innovation policies are often unsuccessful and rarely inclusive. We conceptualize such processes as foresighting. We focus on how the ex-ante design of policymaking processes affects the actual process with a focus on inclusion, and we discuss how it affects policy effectiveness and innovation system transformation. Our argument is that processes of policymaking must be inclusive to affect and transform innovation systems because a set of distributed actors, rather than ministries and innovation agencies, is the gatekeepers of change. From this perspective, inclusion is a precondition rather than an obstacle for transformation. We develop a conceptual framework and use it to study design and processes in two foresight cases in two emerging economies - Brazil and South Korea. Although the research is exploratory and the results tentative, the empirical studies support our main propositions.