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The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Ferguson

    (Institute for New Economic Thinking)

  • Paul Jorgensen

    (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley)

  • Jie Chen

    (University of Massachusetts, Boston)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the 2020 election, focusing on voters, not political money, and emphasizing the importance of economic geography. Drawing extensively on county election returns, it analyzes how spatial factors combined with industrial structures to shape the outcome. It treats COVID 19`s role at length. The paper reviews studies suggesting that COVID 19 did not matter much, but then sets out a new approach indicating it mattered a great deal. The study analyzes the impact on the vote not only of unemployment but differences in income and industry structures, along with demographic factors, including religion, ethnicity, and race. It also studies how the waves of wildcat strikes and social protests that punctuated 2020 affected the vote in specific areas. Trump`s very controversial trade policies and his little discussed farm policies receive detailed attention. The paper concludes with a look at how political money helped make the results of the Congressional election different from the Presidential race. It also highlights the continuing importance of private equity and energy sectors opposed to government action to reverse climate change as conservative forces in (especially) the Republican Party, together with agricultural interests.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Ferguson & Paul Jorgensen & Jie Chen, 2021. "The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar," Working Papers Series inetwp169, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp169
    DOI: 10.36687/inetwp169
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp169
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Leonardo Baccini & Abel Brodeur & Stephen Weymouth, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 739-767, April.
    4. Shawn K. McGuire & Charles B. Delahunt, 2020. "Predicting United States Policy Outcomes with Random Forests," Working Papers Series inetwp138, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    5. Pierre Kohler & Servaas Storm, 2016. "CETA without Blinders: How Cutting “Trade Costs and More” Will Cause Unemployment, Inequality, and Welfare Losses," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 257-293, October.
    6. Ekaterina Galkina Cleary & Matthew J. Jackson & Fred D. Ledley, 2020. "Government as the First Investor in Biopharmaceutical Innovation: Evidence From New Drug Approvals 2010 - 2019," Working Papers Series inetwp133, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    7. Thomas Ferguson & Paul Jorgensen & Jie Chen, 2016. "How Money Drives US Congressional Elections," Working Papers Series 48, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    8. Pierre Kohler & Servaas Storm, 2016. "CETA Without Blinders: How Cutting ‘Trade Costs and More’ Will Cause Unemployment, Inequality and Welfare Losses," GDAE Working Papers 16-03, GDAE, Tufts University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political economy; voting; 2020 presidential election; Donald Trump; Populism; trade policy; farm policy; political money; Joe Biden; private equity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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