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Urban Sprawl and Fuel Consumption in Post-Earthquake Period: A Quasi-Experimental Evidence

Author

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  • Ahmet Duhan Yassa

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of urban sprawl and urban mobility on long-term fuel consumption after the 2011 Van earthquake in Türkiye. Both province-level synthetic control and firm-level difference-in-differences (DID) analyses indicate a statistically significant increase in fuel consumption in Van after the earthquake, even though there was no dramatic change in the main determinants of fuel consumption in the province in this period. Findings from the satellite-supported population density images and sensor-level traffic density data reveal that rising population density in peripheral regions and increasing urban mobility within the province are the potential drivers of the rise in fuel consumption. While the impact of the Van earthquake on fuel consumption, the foreign trade deficit and greenhouse gas emissions was limited given the size of the city, the results highlight the potential impact of other major disasters that have occurred in the recent past and are expected to occur in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmet Duhan Yassa, 2024. "Urban Sprawl and Fuel Consumption in Post-Earthquake Period: A Quasi-Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 2401, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2401
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/publications/research/working+paperss/2024/24-01
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urban sprawl; Fuel consumption; Earthquake; Synthetic control; Greenhouse gas emissions; Trade deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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