Turkiye'de Reel Kur Hareketlerinin �hracat Uzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri (Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements on Turkish Exports)

This study investigates the sensitivity of export demand to variations in foreign income and real exchange rate by examining the determinants of Turkish exports (excluding gold) with a demand side model. To minimize the aggregation bias caused by using aggregate export statistics, country level bilateral export data is employed. Real exchange rate developments are modeled asymmetrically by the nonlinear ARDL method (NARDL). This method allows examining whether the response of exports differs with respect to real exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. Findings indicate that exports are significantly affected by real exchange rate developments for the countries to which almost half of Turkey�s total exports are made. Panel data estimations also confirm the long-run relationship between exports and real exchange rate. Standardized coefficient estimates indicate that income elasticity of exports is greater than real exchange rate elasticity of exports in absolute terms. In addition, there is evidence that real exchange rate developments induce asymmetrical effects on exports. Findings show that exchange rate elasticity of exports is greater during the periods when Turkish lira appreciates.