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External Financial Stress and External Financing Vulnerability in Turkey : Some Policy Implications for Financial Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Etkin Ozen
  • Cem Sahin
  • Ibrahim Unalmis

Abstract

External financial stress is one of the causes of capital outflows and reduction in borrowing ability of emerging markets. Sudden reversal of capital inflows and disruption in access to the international capital markets could be a threat for the domestic financial stability as in the case of Asian Crisis in 1997-1998. This paper analyses the behavior of external financing sources of Turkey, namely FX non-core liabilities of the banking system and portfolio flows, for periods 1995-2000 and 2004-2012. Our results show that unlike the 1995-2000 period, FX non-core liabilities of the banking system are very sensitive to the external financial stress during the 2004-2012 period. Portfolio flows decline in both cases but with a higher magnitude in the second period. Our results have important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Etkin Ozen & Cem Sahin & Ibrahim Unalmis, 2013. "External Financial Stress and External Financing Vulnerability in Turkey : Some Policy Implications for Financial Stability," Working Papers 1317, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1317
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burcu Aydin & Deniz Igan, 2012. "Bank Lending in Turkey: Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 78-104, September.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Richard K. Lyons & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2001. "Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets: An Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 315-31-340.
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    4. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Policy Challenges," Research Department Publications 4102, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    7. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Policy Challenges," Research Department Publications 4102, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. William Poole, 2007. "Industry councils bring firsthand insights to our regional economic outlook," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 1-3.
    9. Roberto Rigobon, 2000. "Identification through Heteroskedasticity: Measuring "Contagion: betweenArgentinean and Mexican Sovereign Bonds," NBER Working Papers 7493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurmaş AKDOĞAN & Burcu Deniz YILDIRIM, 2014. "Non-core Liabilities as an Indicator of Systemic Risk and a Liquidity Stress Test Application on Turkish Banking System," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 29(338), pages 39-66.
    2. Zubeyir Kilinc & Hatice Gokce Karasoy & Eray Yucel, 2013. "Non-core Liabilities and Credit Growth," Working Papers 1324, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Engin Yilmaz & Bora Suslu, 2016. "Turkish Non-Core Bank Liabilities," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 14(1), pages 75-92.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; financial flows; FX non-core liabilities; VIX; Turkish banking secto;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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