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A Closer Look at Core Inflation Dynamics with a Historical Perspective

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  • Yakup Kutsal Koca
  • Tuba Yilmaz

Abstract

[EN] This study addresses the differences in the pricing dynamics between core goods and services group, using the contributions of the main macroeconomic variables to inflation rates. To estimate the contributions, we fit time varying parameter Phillips Curve model for the period 2007-2018. Results indicate that, for the core goods inflation, exchange rate and import prices have been major determinants, whereas inflation rigidity is smaller. For the services prices, results point out that inflation rigidity is quite large. Moreover, while the exchange rate pass-through is smaller, backward indexation and food prices significantly impact on services inflation.[TR] Bu calismada, 2007 ve 2018 yillari arasindaki donem icin temel makro degiskenlerin temel mal ve hizmet enflasyonuna katkilari, parametreleri zamana gore degisen bir Philips Egrisi modeline gore tahmin edilmekte ve bu iki grup arasindaki fiyatlama dinamigi farkliliklari ele alinmaktadir. Calismanin bulgulari, temel mal grubunda doviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarinin temel belirleyici oldugunu, buna karsilik enflasyon katiliginin gorece zayif oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Hizmet grubunda ise, bulgular yuksek katiliga isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, hizmet grubuna doviz kuru geciskenligi daha zayifken, gecmise endeksleme ve gida enflasyonu hizmet enflasyonunu onemli olcude etkilemektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Yakup Kutsal Koca & Tuba Yilmaz, 2018. "A Closer Look at Core Inflation Dynamics with a Historical Perspective," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1807, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1807
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey : A Historical Accounting," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1703, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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