Reel Sektor Doviz Pozisyonu ve Risklerin Dagilimi

[TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye’de finansal olmayan (reel sektor) firmalarin yabanci para borclulugunun son on senedeki gelisimi ve potansiyel finansal risklerin dagilimi detayli olarak incelenmistir. Analizde firma kredileri populasyonunu olusturan Turkiye Bankalar Birligi Risk Merkezi verisi ile firmalarin yukumluluk bilgileri yaninda, varliklarinin da yabanci para – Turk Lirasi ayirimi yapilabilen Borsa Istanbul reel sektor firma verileri kullanilmistir. Risk Merkezi verilerine gore yabanci para kredileri genel olarak yuksek miktarda kredi bakiyesine sahip az sayida firmada ve uzun vadelerde yogunlasmaktadir. Doviz cinsi krediler agirlikli olarak ihracat geliri olan imalat sanayi sektorunde yogunlasmasina karsin enerji, ulastirma, haberlesme ve insaat sektorleri doviz kredi paylari, son donemdeki buyuk alt ve ust yapi projelerinin etkisiyle, onemli olcude artmistir. Benzer sekilde, Borsa Istanbul firmalari doviz acik pozisyonu, aktifleri bakimindan buyuk olcekli, yuksek ihracat gelirleri olan ve turev islemleriyle kur risklerine karsi daha fazla koruma saglayan firmalarda yogunlasmaktadir. 2013 ve sonrasindaki kur soklari Borsa Istanbul firma bilancolarinda bir miktar bozulmaya yol actigi gozlense de bu bozulma bircok firma icin finansal strese dusecek seviyelerde gerceklesmemistir. Kur risklerinin yonetimi acisindan bu bulgu olumlu degerlendirilse de daha siddetli kur soklarinin etkilerini azaltmak icin etkin kur riski yonetimi ve doviz riskine yonelik gozetim altyapisinin guclendirilmesi onem arz etmektedir. [EN] In this study, developments on the foreign currency indebtedness of non-financial (real sector) Turkish firms over the last decade and the distribution of potential financial risks have been examined in detail. In the analysis, Banking Association of Turkey- Risk Center data, covering the population of corporate credits, as well as the Borsa Istanbul reel sector company data, where asset and liability currency denomination can be separated out, are used. According to the Risk Center database, foreign currency loans mainly concentrated in a small number of firms with high credit balance, and in long maturities. Despite the fact that FX credits are heavily concentrated in the manufacturing sector, the FX credit shares of energy, transportation, communication and construction sectors have increased considerably following the recent large scale infrastructure and construction projects. Similarly, Borsa Istanbul firms’ FX open positions are concentrated among the ones with large asset size, high export revenues, and holding relatively larger hedge positions against to currency risks. While the post-2013 exchange rate shocks seem to have caused a considerable deterioration in the BIST firm's balance sheets, this deterioration has not occurred at the levels that can result in financial stresses for most of the firms. Although this finding is considered positively, it is important to strengthen effective currency risk management and foreign currency risk surveillance infrastructure in order to reduce the effects of more severe exchange rate shocks.