Ihracatin Sektorel Doviz Kuru Duyarliligi

[TR] Bu calismada 1997-2013 doneminde Avrupa Birligi’ne (AB) yapilan ihracat ile reel doviz kuru iliskisi, imalat sanayi sektorleri bazinda geleneksel ekonometrik yontemlerden farkli olarak devresel analiz ile ayrintili olarak incelenmistir. Devresel analizler ile kurdaki deger kazanma/kaybetme donemleri belirlenmis, kurdaki degisimlere ihracatin verdigi tepkiler analiz edilerek sektorlerin goreli doviz kuru duyarlilik derecesi saptanmistir. Elde edilen bulgular; doviz kuruna en duyarli olan sektorlerin AB’ye ihracat icindeki payinin yaklasik yuzde 26, duyarliligi en dusuk sektorlerin ise yuzde 37 oldugunu ve AB’ye yapilan ihracatta doviz kurunun rekabet gucune etkisinin sinirli duzeyde kaldigini gostermistir. Bu da rekabet gucunu artiracak politikalar gelistirirken fiyat rekabetinden ziyade sektorlere ozgu yapisal unsurlarin ele alinmasi gerektigi gorusunu desteklemektedir. [EN] This study, using cyclical analysis in contrast to the conventional econometric methods, investigates the relationship between Turkish exports to the European Union and the real exchange rate for the 1997-2013 period. We identify the depreciation/appreciation periods using cyclical analysis, and then analyze the responses of the sectoral exports to the exchange rate changes in order to determine the sectoral exchange rate sensitivities in the context of the manufacturing sector. Our results reveal that the share of the most responsive sectors constitutes 26 percent of Turkish exports to the European Union, while the share of the least responsive sectors is 37 percent. This implies that the competitive power of the exchange rates is limited in the case of Turkish exports to the European Union. Our findings are in line with the view that policies should focus on sector-specific structural factors, rather than price competition, in order to improve competitiveness.