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Milli Gelir Buyume Tahmini : IYA ve PMI Gostergelerinin Rolu

Author

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  • Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun
  • Mahmut Gunay

Abstract

[TR] Bir ceyrege iliskin milli gelir verileri gecikmeyle yayimlandigindan buyumeye iliskin zamanli tahmin uretme onem kazanmaktadir. Bu calismada, dinamik faktor modeli yontemi ile reel veriler ve anket gostergelerinden yararlanarak Turkiye ekonomisi icin donemlik milli gelir buyumesine iliskin tahminler elde edilmektedir. PMI ve IYA gibi anket gostergelerinin kullanilmasi ceyrek bitmeden yapilan tahminlerde kayda deger iyilesme saglamaktadir. [EN] GDP figures for a quarter are published with considerable delay. This increases the importance of producing timely forecasts for GDP growth. In this note, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for Turkish economy using hard and soft data in a dynamic factor model. Using PMI and BTS indicators bring significant improvement in nowcasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun & Mahmut Gunay, 2013. "Milli Gelir Buyume Tahmini : IYA ve PMI Gostergelerinin Rolu," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1331, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1331
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    2. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
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    5. Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun & Mahmut Gunay, 2012. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP Growth," Working Papers 1233, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
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