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The Implications of a Break-Up of China for Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Author

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  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, UK
    Institute for Environmental Studies, Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    Department of Economics, Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland)

Abstract

The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in emissions. If something similar would happen in China, projected emissions would fall by 50% or more. Break-up uncertainty dominates other scenario uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard S.J. Tol, 2012. "The Implications of a Break-Up of China for Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Working Paper Series 3912, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:3912
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    File URL: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/economics/documents/wps-39-2012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Conor Devitt & Richard SJ Tol, 2012. "Civil war, climate change, and development: A scenario study for sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 129-145, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "The IPCC and the challenge of ex post policy evaluation," Papers 2207.14724, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    2. Lee Lane & W. Montgomery, 2014. "An institutional critique of new climate scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 447-458, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; scenarios; carbon dioxide emissions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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