IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ste/nystbu/95-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dividend Variability and Stock Market Swings

Author

Listed:
  • Martin D.D. Evans

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which swings in stock prices can be related to variations in the discounted value of expected future dividends when investors face uncertainty about their future behavior. First, I present evidence of instability in time series behavior of dividends and discount rates over the past 120 years and show that it can be well represented by switching processes. I then develop a model for the log dividend-price ratio in which investors rationally anticipate the future switches in the dividend and discount rate processes. Estimates of the model reveal that changing forecasts of future dividend growth account for more than 90% of the predictable variations in dividend-prices. The estimates also imply that process switches contribute significantly to the apparent "excess volatility" of dividend-prices and the predictability of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin D.D. Evans, 1995. "Dividend Variability and Stock Market Swings," Working Papers 95-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ste:nystbu:95-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ste:nystbu:95-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amanda Murphy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ednyuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.