Who Moves? A Panel Logit Model Analysis of Inter-provincial Migration in Canada

This paper addresses the topic of inter-provincial migration in terms of the basic question: "who moves?" Panel logit models of the probability of moving from one year to the next are estimated using samples derived from the Longitudinal Administrative Database covering the period 1982-95. Explanatory variables include "environmental" factors, personal characteristics, labour market attributes, and a series of year variables. Separate models are estimated for eight age-sex groups. The major findings include that: i) migration rates have been inversely related to the size of the province, presumably capturing economic conditions, labour market scale effects, and pure geographical distance, while language has also played an important role; ii) residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas have been less likely to move than individuals in larger cities; iii) age, marriage, and the presence of children have been negatively related to mobility, for both men and women; iv) migration has been positively related to the provincial unemployment rate, the individuals' receipt of unemployment insurance (except Entry Men), having no market income (except for Entry Men and Entry Women), and the receipt of social assistance (especially for men); v) beyond the zero earnings point, migration has been positively related to earnings levels for prime aged men, but not for others, and these effects are generally small (holding other factors constant); vi) there were no dramatic shifts in migration rates over time, but men's rates dropped off a bit in the 1990s while women's rates (except for the Entry group) generally held steadier or rose slightly, indicating a divergence in trends along gender lines.