IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssa/lemwps/2010-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Bigger Always Better ? The Effect of Size on Defaults

Author

Listed:
  • Giulio Bottazzi
  • Federico Tamagni

Abstract

Exploiting a large database of Italian manufacturing firms we investigate the relationships between default rate and firm size. Default events, defined as conditions of actual or likely insolvency, are a signal of deep business troubles. They are unanticipated, costly and dangerous for the firm as well as for the economy, and should be in principle avoided. Our evidence, based on data provided by a large Italian banking group, reveals that the default probability of firms increases with their size. This finding contrasts with typical results on exit events based on business registries data, and suggests to revise the common wisdom that sees the core of the industry as a safe place and its members as most valuable economic assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Bottazzi & Federico Tamagni, 2010. "Is Bigger Always Better ? The Effect of Size on Defaults," LEM Papers Series 2010/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2010/07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2010-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-245, September.
    2. Martha A. Schary, 1991. "The Probability of Exit," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(3), pages 339-353, Autumn.
    3. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and economic determinants of firm default," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 373-406, August.
    4. Gilson, Stuart C, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Capital Structure Choice: Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 161-196, March.
    5. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2008. "Productivity, profitability and financial performance," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 17(4), pages 711-751, August.
    6. Richard Disney & Jonathan Haskel & Ylva Heden, 2003. "Entry, Exit and Establishment Survival in UK Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 91-112, March.
    7. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Stevens, Donald L., 1979. "Bankruptcy Avoidance as a Motive For Merger," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 501-515, September.
    8. Cefis, E. & Marsili, O., 2007. "Going, Going, Gone. Innovation and Exit in Manufacturing Firms," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-015-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    9. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Amparo Sanchis-Llopis & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2010. "A competing risks analysis of firms’ exit," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 281-304, April.
    10. Agarwal, Rajshree & Gort, Michael, 1996. "The Evolution of Markets and Entry, Exit and Survival of Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 489-498, August.
    11. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
    12. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
    13. Honjo, Yuji, 2000. "Business failure of new firms: an empirical analysis using a multiplicative hazards model," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 557-574, May.
    14. Rajshree Agarwal & David B. Audretsch, 2001. "Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 21-43, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and economic determinants of firm default," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 373-406, August.
    2. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Grazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2011. "Financial and economic determinants of firm default," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 373-406, August.
    3. Carla Daniela Calá & Miguel Manjón-Antolín & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2017. "Regional Determinants of Exit Across Firms’ Size: Evidence from Argentina," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(6), pages 768-785, December.
    4. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2009. "Product Innovation and Survival in a High-Tech Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(4), pages 287-306, June.
    5. Masatoshi Kato & Yuji Honjo, 2015. "Entrepreneurial human capital and the survival of new firms in high- and low-tech sectors," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 925-957, November.
    6. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna M. & Guidi, Francesco, 2015. "Inverted-U relationship between innovation and survival: evidence from firm-level UK data," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 14073, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    7. Filippo Randelli & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2015. "The Survival of Tuscan Firms," Working Papers - Economics wp2015_02.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    8. Dimara, Efthalia & Skuras, Dimitris & Tsekouras, Kostas & Tzelepis, Dimitris, 2008. "Productive efficiency and firm exit in the food sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 185-196, April.
    9. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Amparo Sanchis-Llopis & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2010. "A competing risks analysis of firms’ exit," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 281-304, April.
    10. Agostino, Mariarosaria & Errico, Lucia & Rondinella, Sandro & Trivieri, Francesco, 2023. "Enduring lending relationships and european firms default," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 459-477.
    11. Calá, Carla Daniela & Manjón-Antolín, Miguel & Arauzo-Carod, Josep-Maria, 2017. "Regional determinants of exit across firms' size: evidence from a developing country," Nülan. Deposited Documents 2548, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    12. Kozo Kiyota & Miho Takizawa, 2006. "The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan," Discussion papers 06033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Masatoshi Kato & Koichiro Onishi & Yuji Honjo, 2022. "Does patenting always help new firm survival? Understanding heterogeneity among exit routes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 449-475, August.
    14. A. Arrighetti & F. Landini & A. Lasagni, 2015. "Firms’economic crisis and firm exit: do intangibles matters?," Economics Department Working Papers 2015-EP04, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    15. Harald Strotmann, 2007. "Entrepreneurial Survival," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 87-104, January.
    16. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2007. "Entry, Innovation and Exit. Evidence from the LAN switch Industry," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    17. Mohammad Ali Jamali & Nor Ghani Md Nor, 2012. "Growth of Firms in Manufacturing Sector," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 51-68, February.
    18. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna, 2016. "Inverted-U relationship between R&D intensity and survival: Evidence on scale and complementarity effects in UK data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1474-1492.
    19. Rosanna Pittiglio & Filippo Reganati, 2015. "Multinational Enterprises, Technological Intensity and Firm Survival. Evidence from Italian Manufacturing and Services Firms," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 87-106, March.
    20. Ferragina, Anna & Pittiglio, Rosanna & Reganati, Filippo, 2012. "Multinational status and firm exit in the Italian manufacturing and service sectors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 363-372.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm default and exit; firm size; bootstrap probit regressions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2010/07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labssit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.