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A Co-Evolutionary, Long-Term, MacroEconomic Forecast for the UK Using Demographic Projections

Author

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  • Nick Jagger

    (SPRU, University of Sussex; University of Brighton)

Abstract

This paper is based around outlining and illustrating the use of a co-evolutionary method for long-term macro-economic forecasting. The paper includes economic forecasts for the UK to 2060 using a novel approach based on Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis (MSSA). The forecasts are based on projections of the working-age population and their educational attainment, as well as building on the historic trends of these variables. The variables forecasted are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment and productivity, based on historic time-series dating back to 1856, and their interactions with the projected variables. Other longterm forecasts for the UK are examined and the important impact of demographic change and plateauing educational attainment is assessed. Additionally, the power of the new MSSA forecasting technique proposed here is illustrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Jagger, 2018. "A Co-Evolutionary, Long-Term, MacroEconomic Forecast for the UK Using Demographic Projections," SPRU Working Paper Series 2018-20, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sru:ssewps:2018-20
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    File URL: https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=2018-20-swps-jagger.pdf&site=25
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-evolutionary forecasting; Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis; Demographics; Educational Attainment; Long-term macro-economic forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B15 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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