IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/srk/srkwps/201612.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extreme risk interdependence

Author

Listed:
  • Polanski, Arnold
  • Stoja, Evarist

Abstract

We define tail interdependence as a situation where extreme outcomes for some variables are informative about such outcomes for other variables. We extend the concept of multiinformation to quantify tail interdependence, decompose it into systemic and residual interdependence and measure the contribution of a constituent to the interdependence of a system. Further, we devise statistical procedures to test: a) tail independence, b) whether an empirical interdependence structure is generated by a theoretical model and c) symmetry of the interdependence structure in the tails. We outline some additional extensions and illustrate this framework by applying it to several datasets. JEL Classification: C12, C14, C52

Suggested Citation

  • Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2016. "Extreme risk interdependence," ESRB Working Paper Series 12, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201612
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esrb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp12.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:12:p:3711-3751 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Andrew J. Patton, 2009. "Are "Market Neutral" Hedge Funds Really Market Neutral?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2295-2330, July.
    5. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2014. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 51-99, February.
    6. Chen, Yi-Ting, 2007. "Moment-Based Copula Tests for Financial Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 377-397, October.
    7. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    8. U. Cherubini & E. Luciano, 2002. "Bivariate option pricing with copulas," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 69-85.
    9. Giacomini, Enzo & Härdle, Wolfgang & Spokoiny, Vladimir, 2009. "Inhomogeneous Dependence Modeling with Time-Varying Copulae," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 224-234.
    10. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3711-3751.
    11. Liangjun Su & Martin Spindler, 2013. "Nonparametric Testing for Asymmetric Information," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 208-225, April.
    12. Elad Schneidman & Michael J. Berry & Ronen Segev & William Bialek, 2006. "Weak pairwise correlations imply strongly correlated network states in a neural population," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7087), pages 1007-1012, April.
    13. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    14. Colangelo, Antonio & Scarsini, Marco & Shaked, Moshe, 2005. "Some notions of multivariate positive dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 13-26, August.
    15. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:219-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Li, Haijun, 2009. "Orthant tail dependence of multivariate extreme value distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 243-256, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2015. "Extreme risk interdependence," Bank of England working papers 563, Bank of England.
    2. Arnold Polanski & Evarist Stoja & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, 2021. "Tail risk interdependence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5499-5511, October.
    3. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy), 2019. "Tail risk interdependence," Bank of England working papers 815, Bank of England.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    5. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-78, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.
    7. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2014. "Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-25, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    8. Chollete, Loran & de la Pena , Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/26, University of Stavanger.
    9. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-78, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173, March.
    11. Udichibarna Bose & Ronald MacDonald & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2014. "The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis," Working Papers 2014_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula," Working Papers 2015_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2019. "A country specific point of view on international diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
    15. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2014. "Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-25, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 958-969.
    18. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2020. "Time-varying dependence in European equity markets: A contagion and investor sentiment driven analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-147.
    19. Maya Jalloul & Mirela Miescu, 2021. "Equity Market Connectedness across Regimes of Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 324219805, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    20. Campbell, Rachel A.J. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kofman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing correlations or just fat tails?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-309, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    co-exceedance; Kullback-Leibler divergence; multi-information; relative entropy; risk contribution; risk interdependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esrbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.