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Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe :disentangling the US influence

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  • Marie Briere
  • Florian Ielpo

Abstract

This paper analyses the response of the Euro yield curve to macroeconomic and monetary policy announcements. We present a new methodology for estimating the reaction of the Euro swap curve to economic news, in a data-rich environment. Given the sharp degree of interdependence between Euro rates and US rates, we propose to use the factors of the US yield curve to disentangle the daily variation in Euro rates stemming from US influence and the variation resulting from European news. We highlight the importance of taking the US yield curve influence into account and investigate the shape of the Euro term structure reaction to a range of news types. We find that the impact of economic announcements on the yield curve shows different patterns according to the news and we provide a hierarchy of the economic figures that have the strongest impact on the different maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Briere & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe :disentangling the US influence," Working Papers CEB 07-038.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:07-038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Richhild Moessner, 2015. "Effects of ECB balance sheet policy announcements on inflation expectations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 483-487, April.
    2. Weigerding, Michael, 2020. "Seasonal liquidity effects and their determinants on the covered bond market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 288-303.
    3. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    announcements; news; swap rates; yield curve; interest rates; Euro area.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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