IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/soa/wpaper/143.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China'S Nexus Of Foreign Trade And Economic Growth: Making Sense Of The Anomaly

Author

Listed:
  • Dic Lo

    (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)

Abstract

Using a range of specifications that are standard in the relevant literature, this paper finds that China’s rapid and sustained economic growth in the reform era has tended to be negatively correlated with its export growth and positively correlated with its import growth. This finding runs counter to widely-held perceptions on China’s nexus of foreign trade and economic growth, and thus presents a serious challenge for interpretation. On the basis of some further regression analyses, and drawing on a number of applied studies on the subject matter, the paper argues that the finding is plausible and of complex ramifications. The conclusion which this paper arrives at, therefore, is that the Chinese experience has tended to be a case of strategic integration into the world market, rather than conforming to the standard neoclassical thesis of trade regime neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Dic Lo, 2004. "China'S Nexus Of Foreign Trade And Economic Growth: Making Sense Of The Anomaly," Working Papers 143, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    • Handle: RePEc:soa:wpaper:143
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.soas.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-10/economics-wp143.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Greenaway & David Sapsford, 1994. "What does liberalisation do for exports and growth?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(1), pages 152-174, March.
    2. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    3. Romer, Paul, 1994. "New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-38, February.
    4. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1995. "Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386706.
    5. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1995. "Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_95-2.
    6. Boltho, Andrea, 1996. "Was Japanese Growth Export-Led?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 415-432, July.
    7. Dic Lo & Thomas M. H. Chan, 1998. "Machinery and China's nexus of foreign trade and economic growth," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(6), pages 733-749.
    8. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1995. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-110, October.
    9. Yu, Qiao, 1998. "Capital investment, international trade and economic growth in China: Evidence in the 1980-1990s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 73-84.
    10. Pack, Howard & Westphal, Larry E., 1986. "Industrial strategy and technological change : Theory versus reality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 87-128, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. U. Santos-Paulino, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 140-164.
    2. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    3. Tsun Se Cheong & Yanrui Wu, 2013. "Globalization and Regional Inequality," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: An empirical reinvestigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 353-371, December.
    5. Jose L. Tongzon, 2002. "The Economies of Southeast Asia, Second Edition," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2029.
    6. Hongyi Harry Lai, 1997. "Factor Endowments, Trade Direction, and Growth Performances of the Americas and East Asia in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Development and Comp Systems 9710004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jun 1998.
    7. Amelia U. Santos‐Paulino, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence for Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 783-821, June.
    8. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    9. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kababie, Kababie & Boehmer, Charles R., 2012. "International trade and economic growth in Mexico," MPRA Paper 42991, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gao, Ting, 2004. "Regional industrial growth: evidence from Chinese industries," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 101-124, January.
    12. Sai Ding & John Knight, 2011. "Why has China Grown So Fast? The Role of Physical and Human Capital Formation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 141-174, April.
    13. Kanbur, Ravi & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2001. "Fifty Years Of Regional Inequality In China: A Journey Through Revolution, Reform And Openness," Working Papers 7236, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    14. Kwong-Leung Tang, 1998. "East Asian Newly Industrializing Countries: Economic Growth and Quality of Life," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 69-96, February.
    15. Chi‐Wa Yuen, 1998. "The Fifth Asian Dragon: Sources Of Growth In Guangdong, 1979–1994," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, January.
    16. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David, 2013. "An empirical test of exogenous versus endogenous growth models for the G-7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 262-272.
    17. Singh, Nirvikar, 2006. "Services-led industrialization in India: Assessment and lessons," MPRA Paper 1276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    19. Fadzil, Atikah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does export lead growth? evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 109290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Elissa Braunstein & Gerald Epstein, 2002. "Bargaining Power and Foreign Direct Investment in China: Can 1.3 Billion Consumers Tame the Multinationals?," SCEPA working paper series. 2002-13, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; foreign trade; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:soa:wpaper:143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chandni Dwarkasing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desoauk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.