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The Exposure of Swiss Banks to Macroeconomic Shocks - an Empirical Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Hansjörg Lehmann
  • Michael Manz

Abstract

Assessing financial stability is an issue of rapidly growing importance to central banks and banking authorities. This paper explores an extensive panel data set of Swiss banks to identify macroeconomic influencing factors on bank profitability and to quantify their impact on bank capitalization. We find evidence of a significant effect of various macroeconomic variables as e.g. real growth or interest rate shocks on bank earnings. However, our results suggest that the Swiss banking system is quite robust against macroeconomic shocks. Only a joint occurrence of a recession, rising interest rates and falling stock prices would lead to substantial losses in the Swiss banking industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansjörg Lehmann & Michael Manz, 2006. "The Exposure of Swiss Banks to Macroeconomic Shocks - an Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 2006-04, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2006-04
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2006/working_paper_2006_04
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonella Foglia, 2008. "Stress testing credit risk: a survey of authorities' approaches," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 37, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Schechtman, Ricardo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2012. "Macro stress testing of credit risk focused on the tails," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 174-192.
    3. Marco Belloni & Maciej Grodzicki & Mariusz Jarmuzek, 2024. "Why European banks adjust their dividend payouts?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 284-304, September.
    4. Stéphane Albert & Hervé Alexandre, 2018. "Banks’ earnings: Empirical evidence of the influence of economic and financial market factors," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 97-116, April.
    5. Shajari , Parastoo & Shajari , Houshang, 2012. "Financial Soundness Indicators with Emphasis on Non-performing Loans in Iran's Banking System," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(3), pages 163-189, April.
    6. Coffinet, J. & Lin, S. & Martin, C., 2009. "Stress testing French banks' income subcomponents," Working papers 242, Banque de France.
    7. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2015. "Many a little makes a mickle: Macro portfolio stress test for small and medium-sized German banks," Discussion Papers 23/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Albert, Stéphane, 2015. "US bank holding companies: Structure of activities and performance through the cycles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 253-269.
    9. Škrabić Perić, Blanka & Rimac Smiljanić, Ana & Aljinović, Zdravka, 2018. "Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 49-69.
    10. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
    11. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Simple Banking: Profitability and the Yield Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 143-175, February.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10353 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ferrari, Stijn & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2021. "Sensitivity of credit risk stress test results: Modelling issues with an application to Belgium," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Kok, Christoffer & Mirza, Harun & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2019. "Macro stress testing euro area banks’ fees and commissions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 97-119.
    15. Carlos Pérez Montes & Alejandro Ferrer Pérez, 2018. "The impact of the interest rate level on bank profitability and balance sheet structure," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue Otoño.
    16. Budnik, Katarzyna & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Giglio, Carla & Grassi, Alberto & Durrani, Agha & Figueres, Juan Manuel & Konietschke, Paul & Le Grand, Catherine & Metzler, Julian & Población García, Franc, 2024. "Advancements in stress-testing methodologies for financial stability applications," Occasional Paper Series 348, European Central Bank.
    17. Massimiliano Affinito & Matteo D'Amato & Raffaele Santioni, 2023. "The evolution of bank fees as a source of income: trends and new business models – evidence from Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 777, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2018. "Many a little makes a mickle: Stress testing small and medium-sized German banks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 237-253.
    19. Carlos Pérez Montes & Alejandro Ferrer Pérez, 2018. "The impact of the interest rate level on bank profitability and balance sheet structure," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking; macroeconomic shocks; stress tests; credit risk; interest rate risk; Switzerland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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