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Improved HAC Covariance Matrix Estimation Based on Forecast Errors

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Abstract

We propose computing HAC covariance matrix estimators based on one-stepahead forecasting errors. It is shown that this estimator is consistent and has smaller bias than other HAC estimators. Moreover, the tests that rely on this estimator have more accurate sizes without sacrificing its power.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung-Ming Kuan & Yu-Wei Hsieh, 2006. "Improved HAC Covariance Matrix Estimation Based on Forecast Errors," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 06-A008, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    • Handle: RePEc:sin:wpaper:06-a008
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    File URL: https://www.econ.sinica.edu.tw/~econ/pdfPaper/06-A008.pdf
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    1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
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    3. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang & Helle Bunzel, 2000. "Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 695-714, May.
    4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    5. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    7. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Testing Parametric Conditional Distributions of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 531-549, August.
    8. de Jong, Robert M., 2000. "A Strong Consistency Proof For Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 262-268, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartigan, Luke, 2018. "Alternative HAC covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 55-73.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast error; HAC estimator; kernel estimator; recursive residual; robust test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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