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What Will Drive Long-Run Growth in the Digital Age?

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  • Jakub Growiec

Abstract

This paper considers the prospective sources of long-run growth in the future. Historically, in the industrial era and at the early stage of the digital era (which began approximately in the 1980s) the main growth engine is R&D. If in the future all essential production or R&D tasks will eventually be subject to automation, though, the engine of growth will be shifted to the accumulation of programmable hardware (capital), and R&D will lose its prominence. By contrast, if neither production nor R&D tasks will be fully automated, R&D will remain the main growth engine. Additional mechanisms potentially accelerating and sustaining growth are the accumulation of R&D capital (particularly important under partial automation), and hardware-augmenting technical change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Growiec, 2020. "What Will Drive Long-Run Growth in the Digital Age?," KAE Working Papers 2020-054, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2020054
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    File URL: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/Documents/WorkingPapersKAE/WPKAE_2020_054.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run growth; factor accumulation; technical change; automation; asymptotic dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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