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Climate Change and Violent Conflict in Europe over the Last Millennium

Author

Listed:
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute)

  • Sebastian Wagner

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder periods. This relationship is weakening over time, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. We thus confirm Zhang et al. (2006, Climatic Change, 76, 459-477) that, at least in temperate climates, global warming would, if anything, lead to reduced violent conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard S.J. Tol & Sebastian Wagner, 2008. "Climate Change and Violent Conflict in Europe over the Last Millennium," Working Papers FNU-154, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:154
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    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/climatewarwp.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
    Download Restriction: no
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Iyigun, Murat & Nunn, Nathan & Qian, Nancy, 2017. "Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900," IZA Discussion Papers 10475, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Kyosuke Kikuta, 2019. "Postdisaster Reconstruction as a Cause of Intrastate Violence: An Instrumental Variable Analysis with Application to the 2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(3), pages 760-785, March.
    3. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    history; violent conflict; Europe; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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