IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sek/iefpro/4507381.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Prediction of Earnings Movement Using Mandated XBRL data ? Industry Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rimona Palas

    (College of Business and Law)

  • Amos Baranes

    (Peres Academic Center)

Abstract

The immediate availability and easy accessibility of the XBRL filings will allow researchers and investors, especially small investors, to implement investment strategies based on this information. The objective of this study is to examine whether previous studies, predicting the direction of movement of earnings, are still relevant when using the newly SEC required, XBRL database (standardized financial reporting system). The study analyzes NYSE companies' XBRL quarterly data, from 2011 to 2015, using a two-step Logit regression model. The model is then used to arrive at the probability of the directional movement of earnings between current quarter and subsequent quarter, adjusted for a drift. Additional models are created by dividing the sample into industry membership (based on SIC codes).The results classified the companies as ones that would realize an increase in earnings or a decrease in earnings. The final model indicated a significant ability to predict subsequent earnings changes. The predictions appear to be correct on average about 70.7% of the time (higher than those of previous studies based on COMPUSTAT). The industry based models, although do not increase the accuracy of the model (an average of 68%) do increase the portfolio size. In other words, the model, based on industry, is able to classify more companies with a higher probability.These results suggest that XBRL data can be used as a means for forecasting movements in earnings, and creating a profitable investment strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rimona Palas & Amos Baranes, 2017. "The Prediction of Earnings Movement Using Mandated XBRL data ? Industry Analysis," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4507381, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:sek:iefpro:4507381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iises.net/proceedings/7th-economics-finance-conference-tel-aviv-israel/table-of-content/detail?cid=45&iid=016&rid=7381
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosenberg, Barr & Houglet, Michel, 1974. "Error Rates in CRSP and Compustat Data Bases and their Implications," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1303-1310, September.
    2. Ou, Ja, 1990. "The Information-Content Of Nonearnings Accounting Numbers As Earnings Predictors," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 144-163.
    3. Bambang Setiono, 1998. "Predicting Stock Returns Using Financial Statement Information," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5&6), pages 631-657.
    4. Robert J. Bloomfield & Robert Libby & Mark W. Nelson, 2003. "Do Investors Overrely on Old Elements of the Earnings Time Series?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(1), pages 1-31, March.
    5. Stober, Thomas L., 1992. "Summary financial statement measures and analysts' forecasts of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 347-372, August.
    6. R Bird & R Gerlach & AD Hall, 2001. "The prediction of earnings movements using accounting data: An update and extension of Ou and Penman," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(2), pages 180-195, September.
    7. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    8. Ray Ball & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2008. "How Much New Information Is There in Earnings?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 975-1016, December.
    9. Holthausen, Robert W. & Larcker, David F., 1992. "The prediction of stock returns using financial statement information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 373-411, August.
    10. Bambang, Norman Setiono Strong, 1998. "Predicting Stock Returns Using Financial Statement Information," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5‐6), pages 631-657, June.
    11. Ou, Ja & Penman, Sh, 1989. "Accounting Measurement, Price Earnings Ratio, And The Information-Content Of Security Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 111-144.
    12. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    13. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    14. Larcker, Df, 1989. "Accounting Measurement, Price Earnings Ratios, And The Information-Content Of Security Prices - Discussion," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 145-152.
    15. Pervin K. Shroff, 1999. "The Variability of Earnings and Non-Earnings Information and Earnings Prediction," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(7&8), pages 863-882.
    16. Pervaiz Alam & Charles A. Brown, 2006. "Disaggregated earnings and the prediction of ROE and stock prices: a case of the banking industry," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 443-463, November.
    17. Ou, Jane A. & Penman, Stephen H., 1989. "Financial statement analysis and the prediction of stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 295-329, November.
    18. Finger, Ca, 1994. "The Ability Of Earnings To Predict Future Earnings And Cash Flow," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 210-223.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rimona Palas & Amos Baranes, 2019. "Making investment decisions using XBRL filing data," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(4), pages 587-609, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rimona Palas & Amos Baranes, 2019. "Making investment decisions using XBRL filing data," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(4), pages 587-609, November.
    2. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    3. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    4. Victor Bernard & Jacob Thomas & James Wahlen, 1997. "Accounting†Based Stock Price Anomalies: Separating Market Inefficiencies from Risk," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 89-136, June.
    5. Photis Panayides & Neophytos Lambertides, 2011. "Fundamental Analysis and Relative Efficiency of Maritime Firms: Dry Bulk vs Tanker Firms," Chapters, in: Kevin Cullinane (ed.), International Handbook of Maritime Economics, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Stina Skogsvik, 2008. "Financial Statement Information, the Prediction of Book Return on Owners' Equity and Market Efficiency: The Swedish Case," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7-8), pages 795-817.
    7. Michael Ettredge & Richard Toolson & Steve Hall & Chongkil Na, 1996. "Behavior of earnings, stock returns, accruals, and analysts' forecasts following negative annual earnings," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 147-162.
    8. Ettredge, Michael & Toolson, Richard & Hall, Steve & Na, Chongkil, 1996. "Behavior of earnings, stock returns, accruals, and analysts' forecasts following negative annual earnings," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-162.
    9. Avkiran, Necmi K. & Morita, Hiroshi, 2010. "Predicting Japanese bank stock performance with a composite relative efficiency metric: A new investment tool," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 254-271, June.
    10. repec:grz:wpsses:2020-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    12. Liu, Chao-Shin & Ziebart, David A., 1999. "Anomalous security price behavior following management earnings forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 405-429, October.
    13. Mary E. Barth & Greg Clinch & Doron Israeli, 2016. "What do accruals tell us about future cash flows?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 768-807, September.
    14. Ball, Ray & Brown, Philip, 2019. "Ball and Brown (1968) after fifty years," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 410-431.
    15. Martin Wallmeier, 2009. "Kapitalmarktwirkungen der Berichterstattung zur Unternehmensleistung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 212-224, March.
    16. Duarte Trigueiros, 2019. "Improving the effectiveness of predictors in accounting-based models," Journal of Applied Accounting Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(2), pages 207-226, June.
    17. Jean-Francois Gajewski & Bertrand Quere, 2001. "The information content of earnings and turnover announcements in France," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 679-704.
    18. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Grinblatt, Mark, 2018. "Agnostic fundamental analysis works," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 125-147.
    19. Demmer, Matthias, 2015. "Improving profitability forecasts with information on earnings quality," Discussion Papers 2015/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    20. Stina Skogsvik, 2008. "Financial Statement Information, the Prediction of Book Return on Owners' Equity and Market Efficiency: The Swedish Case," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7‐8), pages 795-817, September.
    21. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    accounting information; earnings prediction; investment strategy; XBRL; industry analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sek:iefpro:4507381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klara Cermakova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://iises.net/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.