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Is Barrier version of Merton model more realistic? Evidence from Europe

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  • Petra Andrlikova

    (Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, (I? 00216208))

Abstract

A company can go bankrupt if the value of its assets drops below the debt level. This event can happen at any point in time. This is however not taken into account in the plain vanilla option framework of the Merton model. Theoretically, the barrier version of the Merton model shall therefore be more accurate since it allows the company to go bankrupt at time prior to or at maturity. This theoretical prediction is tested on European most liquid companies. The implied default probabilities are compared with observed default rates given the Standard & Poor?s rating grades. We provide evidence that the Barrier version of Merton model is more realistic, i.e. provides a significantly better fit to observed default rates, based on the value of the Diebold-Mariano test statistics.

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  • Petra Andrlikova, 2014. "Is Barrier version of Merton model more realistic? Evidence from Europe," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0801868, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iacpro:0801868
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
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    5. Briys, Eric & de Varenne, François, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 239-248, June.
    6. Hoi Ying Wong & Tsz Wang Choi, 2009. "Estimating default barriers from market information," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 187-196.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural credit risk model; barrier option pricing theory; down-and-in option; default probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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