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Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2020 Final Report

Author

Listed:
  • Grzegorz Poniatowski
  • Adam Åšmietanka
  • Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovskiy

Abstract

This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported. In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Grzegorz Poniatowski & Adam Åšmietanka & Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovskiy, 2020. "Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2020 Final Report," CASE Reports 0503, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:report:0503
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    File URL: https://www.case-research.eu/files/?id_plik=6544
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Radu CIOBANU & Adriana Florina POPA & Daniela-Nicoleta SAHLIAN, 2023. "Analysis of the Decisive Factors of the VAT Gap," CECCAR Business Review, Body of Expert and Licensed Accountants of Romania (CECCAR), vol. 4(1), pages 50-57, January.
    2. Antonín Korauš & Miroslav Gombár & Alena Vagaská & Stanislav Šišulák & Filip Černák, 2021. "Secondary Energy Sources and Their Optimization in the Context of the Tax Gap on Petrol and Diesel," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Bálint Ván & Csaba G. Tóth & Gábor Lovics & Katalin Szőke, 2022. "Digitalization against the shadow economy: evidence on the role of company size," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2224, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    4. Elena Sidorova & Ekaterina Sebechenko & Yury Kostyukhin & Diana Boboshko & Alexey Kostin & Olga Kostina & Natalia Vikhrova, 2021. "Formation of a Sustainable Mechanism of Preferential VAT Taxation of Exports as Evidenced by the Russian Federation Practice," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Marwin Heinemann & Wojciech Stiller, 2023. "Digitalization and Cross-Border Tax Fraud: Evidence from E-Invoicing in Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10227, CESifo.
    6. Marek Kośny & Jakub Sawulski & Aneta Kiełczewska, 2024. "Measuring the scale of envelope wages: Evidence from Poland," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 949-970, July.
    7. Lapinskas, Arunas & Makhova, Larisa & Haikin, Mark & Troyanskaya, Marija & Mutalimov, Verdi, 2023. "Longevity of EU membership and VAT practices: Dependencies, Contradictions And Implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 630-643.
    8. James Atta Peprah & Francis Kwaw Andoh & Eric Atsu Avorkpo & Kwabena Nkansah Dafor & Benedict Afful Jr & Camara Kwasi Obeng, 2022. "Compliance Burden and Tax Gap Among Micro and Small Businesses: Evidence From Ghana," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption taxation; VAT; tax fraud; tax evasion; tax avoidance; tax gap; tax non-compliance; policy gap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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