IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sec/cnstan/0090.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Path of Exchange Rates in the Polish Economic Transformation

Author

Listed:
  • Lucjan T. Orlowski

Abstract

This study examines the path of adjustments of the exchange rate system in the transforming economy of Poland. It emphasizes the relative advantage of flexible exchange rates over the currency peg. It focuses on several aspects of the exchange rate policy that have not been adequately discussed. One of them is the rationale for returning to a currency peg to the leading currencies of the European Union (EU) and, in the future, to the Euro as a part of necessary preparations of the economy of Poland for accession to the Union. A return to a peg means the reversal from the path of the exchange rate system adjustments that has prevailed during the first five years, or in the first stage of the economic transformation. The study evaluates the rationale of applying a currency peg, thus “borrowing” monetary policy credibility from abroad, when the program of disinflation fails and the government loses a chance to stabilize the economy. High inflation that persists over a long time period is usually caused by automatic indexation, and adaptive expectations. Such chronic or inertial inflation continues long after the expiration of corrective inflation, or inflation stemming from price liberalization, cuts in subsidies and trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucjan T. Orlowski, 1996. "The Path of Exchange Rates in the Polish Economic Transformation," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0090, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0090
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/9041853_090.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "Economic Transition and the Exchange-Rate Regime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 147-152, May.
    2. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 1995. "Preparations of the Visegrad Group countries for admission to the European Union: monetary policy aspects," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(3), pages 333-353, September.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1992. "Monetary problems of post-communism: Lessons from the end of the Austro-Hungarian empire," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 391-424, September.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1996. "Recent Exchange-Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 153-158, May.
    5. Domenico Mario Nuti, 1996. "Inflation, interest and exchange rates in the transition1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 137-158, May.
    6. Michael Bruno, 1992. "Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 741-777, December.
    7. Mr. Michael Bruno, 1992. "Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 1992/030, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
    10. Dariusz Rosati, 1996. "Exchange rate policies during transition from plan to market," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 159-184, May.
    11. Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Mr. Peter B. Clark & Mr. Leonardo Bartolini & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Occasional Papers 1994/001, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Selahattin Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 1998. "Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies," Working Papers 1998-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buiter, Willem H. & Lago, Ricardo & Stern, Nicholas, 1996. "Promoting an Effective Market Economy in a Changing World," CEPR Discussion Papers 1468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
    3. Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 1994. "La politique économique en présence de substitution de monnaies," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 349-368.
    4. Cho, Guedae & Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "Relative Agricultural Price Changes In Different Time Horizons," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Alain de Crombrugghe & David Lipton, 1993. "The Government Budget and the Economic Transformation of Poland," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1993-111, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Engel, C., 1996. "A Model of Foreign Exchange Rate Indetermination," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-13, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    8. Drabek, Zdenek & Brada, Josef C., 1998. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of Trade Policy in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 642-668, December.
    9. Turhan, Ibrahim M., 2008. "Why did it work this time: a comparative analysis of transformation of Turkish economy after 2002," MPRA Paper 31158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. van Aarle, B. & Budina, N., 1995. "Currency substitution in Eastern Europe," Other publications TiSEM ae2e408f-a310-4eb3-9d89-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Heinrich, Ralph P., 1993. "Microeconomic adjustment in Hungary: Results from a survey of enterprises," Kiel Working Papers 599, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Charles Engel, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Working Papers 272011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    13. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    14. Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity," CEPR Discussion Papers 929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233436, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    16. Alan Gelb & Gary Jefferson & Inderjit Singh, 1993. "Can Communist Economies Transform Incrementally? The Experience of China," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 87-150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Falk, Martin & Raiser, Martin & Brauer, Holger, 1996. "Making sense of the J-curve: Capital utilisation, output, and total factor productivity in Polish industry 1990-1993," Kiel Working Papers 723, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    19. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April.
    20. Jean-Charles Asselain & François Bourguignon, 1994. "Convertibilité précoce et protection par le change : un premier bilan de la réinsertion internationale des pays de l'Est," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 833-844.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marta Kowerko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caseepl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.