IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sec/cnrepo/0093.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling Economic, Social and Environmental Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and The Russian Federation

Author

Listed:
  • Maryla Maliszewska
  • Elena Jarocinska
  • Milan Scasny

Abstract

The EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which entered into force in 1997 foresees the possible establishment of a free trade area (FTA) between the parties. The aim of our study is to evaluate the possible economic, social and environmental impact of such a free trade agreement between the European Union and Russia. The results of the analysis indicate that an EU-Russia FTA will be beneficial to the Russian Federation and the EU27. Some sectors are expected to contract in the medium term, but their importance in total output is small. Over the long run, the majority of sectors in Russia are expected to expand, while only a few sectors in the EU27 are expected to register negligible decreases in output. We estimate that welfare losses from the environmental damages would be very small for Russia (possibly even smaller due to the implementation of greener technologies), and negligible for the EU. Despite some significant negative medium-term social implications in selected sectors in Russia, the overall increase in economic activity and wages, coupled with likely domestic policies aiming at easing the impact of transitional unemployment, are expected to allow for the overall reduction in poverty rates. Overall, the results show that significant welfare gains (2.24% of GDP for Russia) would accrue from the deep FTA scenario involving a significant reduction of NTBs along with additional flanking measures, particularly on competition, IPR protection and corruption, which would help re-branding of Russia as a safe and attractive investment location. Also a number of countries such as Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden are expected to see their welfare increase by around 0.5% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Maryla Maliszewska & Elena Jarocinska & Milan Scasny, 2010. "Modeling Economic, Social and Environmental Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and The Russian Federation," CASE Network Reports 0093, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/29994065_CNR_93.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Söderholm, Patrik & Ek, Kristina & Pettersson, Maria, 2007. "Wind power development in Sweden: Global policies and local obstacles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 365-400, April.
    2. World Bank, 2003. "The Russian Labor Market : Moving from Crisis to Recovery," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15007.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ho, Lip-Wah & Lie, Tek-Tjing & Leong, Paul TM & Clear, Tony, 2018. "Developing offshore wind farm siting criteria by using an international Delphi method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 53-67.
    2. Karlsson, Rasmus, 2012. "Carbon lock-in, rebound effects and China at the limits of statism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 939-945.
    3. Haggett, Claire, 2011. "Understanding public responses to offshore wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 503-510, February.
    4. H. Lehmann & A. Muravyev & T. Razzolini & A. Zaiceva, 2011. "The Wage and Non-wage Costs of Displacement: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers wp734, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. Fjaestad, Maja, 2013. "Winds of time: Lessons from Utö in the Stockholm Archipelago, 1990–2001," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 124-130.
    6. Palm, Alvar, 2022. "Innovation systems for technology diffusion: An analytical framework and two case studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. He, Zhengxia & Cao, Changshuai & Kuai, Leyi & Zhou, Yanqing & Wang, Jianming, 2022. "Impact of policies on wind power innovation at different income levels: Regional differences in China based on dynamic panel estimation," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Olga Lazareva, 2009. "Health Effects of Occupational Change," Working Papers w0129, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    9. Sarah Hafner & Olivia James & Aled Jones, 2019. "A Scoping Review of Barriers to Investment in Climate Change Solutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, June.
    10. Pettersson, Maria & Ek, Kristina & Söderholm, Kristina & Söderholm, Patrik, 2010. "Wind power planning and permitting: Comparative perspectives from the Nordic countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 3116-3123, December.
    11. Olga Pavlova & Oleksandr Rohozynsky, 2005. "Labor Markets in CIS Countries," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0311, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    12. Komarov, Dragan & Stupar, Slobodan & Simonović, Aleksandar & Stanojević, Marija, 2012. "Prospects of wind energy sector development in Serbia with relevant regulatory framework overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2618-2630.
    13. Anshelm, Jonas & Simon, Haikola, 2016. "Power production and environmental opinions – Environmentally motivated resistance to wind power in Sweden," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1545-1555.
    14. A. Nivorozhkin & E. Nivorozhkin, 2007. "Do government sponsored vocational training programmes help the unemployed find jobs? Evidence from Russia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 5-10.
    15. van Rijnsoever, Frank J. & Farla, Jacco C.M., 2014. "Identifying and explaining public preferences for the attributes of energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 71-82.
    16. Damián Copena & David Pérez-Neira & Xavier Simón, 2019. "Local Economic Impact of Wind Energy Development: Analysis of the Regulatory Framework, Taxation, and Income for Galician Municipalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Juurikkala, Tuuli & Lazareva, Olga, 2006. "Non-wage benefits, costs turnover, and labor attachment: evidence from Russian firms," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    18. Feurtey, Évariste & Ilinca, Adrian & Sakout, Anas & Saucier, Carol, 2016. "Institutional factors influencing strategic decision-making in energy policy; a case study of wind energy in France and Quebec (Canada)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1455-1470.
    19. Elke Kellner, 2019. "Social Acceptance of a Multi-Purpose Reservoir in a Recently Deglaciated Landscape in the Swiss Alps," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    20. Tuuli Juurikkala & Olga Lazareva, 2006. "Non-wage benefits, costs of turnover, and labor attachment: evidence from Russian firms," Working Papers w0062, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    free trade agreement; WTO accession; European Union; Russian Federation; labor market; environment; NTBs; CGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marta Kowerko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caseepl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.