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Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia

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  • Maryla Maliszewska
  • Irina Orlova
  • Svitlana Taran

Abstract

Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia Abstract: The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of the removal of NTBs in trade between the EU and its selected CIS partners: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (CIS5). The report includes a discussion of methodologies of measurement of non-tariff barriers and the impact of their removal, including a review of previous studies focusing on CEE and CIS regions. Further, we employ a computable general equilibrium model encompassing the following three pillars of trade facilitation: legislative and regulatory approximation, reform of customs rules and procedures and liberalization of the access of foreign providers of services. We conclude that a reduction of NTBs and improved access to the EU market would bring significant benefits to the CIS5 countries in terms of welfare gains, GDP growth, increases in real wages and expansion of international trade. The possible welfare implications of deep integration with the EU range from 5.8% of GDP in Ukraine to sizeable expected gains in Armenia (3.1%), Russia (2.8%), Azerbaijan (1.8%) and Georgia (1.7%).

Suggested Citation

  • Maryla Maliszewska & Irina Orlova & Svitlana Taran, 2009. "Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia," CASE Network Reports 0088, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0088
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward J. Balistreri & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & David G. Tarr & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2016. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Working Papers 2016-07, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    2. Miriam Frey, 2013. "The Effects of the EU-Ukraine FTA: An Inequality Analysis using a CGE-Microsimulation Model for Ukraine," EcoMod2013 5587, EcoMod.
    3. Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Schuerenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2016. "Ukraine’s unconsidered losses from the annexation of Crimea: What should we account for in the DCFTA forecasts?," Conference papers 332717, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Zoryana Olekseyuk & Edward J. Balistreri, 2018. "Trade liberalization gains under different trade theories: a case study for Ukraine," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 507-542, August.
    5. Anders Aslund, 2013. "Ukraine's Choice: European Association Agreement or Eurasian Union?," Policy Briefs PB13-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Miriam Frey & Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2011. "The EU-Ukraine trade liberalization: How much do the costs of tariff elimination matter?," Working Papers 308, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies), revised Feb 2013.
    7. Cristian Incaltarau & Ilkhom Sharipov & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Teodor Lucian Moga, 2022. "Growth and convergence in Eastern Partnership and Central Asian countries since the dissolution of the USSR—embarking on different development paths?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(1), January.
    8. Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2011. "How to model a child in school? A dynamic macro-simulation study for Tanzania," Conference papers 332068, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. World Bank, 2012. "Kazakhstan : Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs," World Bank Publications - Reports 12299, The World Bank Group.
    10. Miriam Frey & Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2014. "A general equilibrium evaluation of the fiscal costs of trade liberalization in Ukraine," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 505-540, August.
    11. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2015. "The EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the importance of FDI," EcoMod2015 8391, EcoMod.
    12. Edward J Balistreri & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & David G Tarr & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2018. "Poverty, Welfare and Income Distribution Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 27(2), pages 172-200.
    13. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2016. "Modeling of FDI in business services: Additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 1010-1043, October.
    14. D. A. Izotov, 2017. "Liberalization of Russia’s trade with the European Union, BRICS, and Trans-Pacific Partnership countries," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 338-345, May.
    15. ARMAN MAZHIKEYEV & Huw Edwards, 2015. "Consequences Of Asymmetric Deeper Eurasian Economic Integration," EcoMod2015 8365, EcoMod.
    16. Balistreri, Edward J. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Tarr, David G. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2016. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Conference papers 332681, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. World Bank, 2012. "Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs Union for Kazakhstan," World Bank Publications - Reports 2722, The World Bank Group.
    18. Miriam Frey, 2016. "Income Inequality Effects of Ukraine’s Trade Liberalization with the EU. Are there 'two Ukraines'?," EcoMod2016 9664, EcoMod.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Institutional harmonization; European integration; European Neighborhood Policy; ENP; non-tariff barriers; NTBs; Computable General Equilibrium; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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