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The Effectiveness of Currency Intervention in a Commodity-Exporter: Evidence from Mongolia

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Pontines

    (The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre)

  • Davaajargal Luvsannyam

    (Bank of Mongolia)

  • Enkhjin Atarbaatar

    (Bank of Mongolia)

  • Ulziikhutag Munkhtsetseg

    (Bank of Mongolia)

Abstract

Although EME central banks actively intervene in currency markets, there is a long-running debate as to its effectiveness in affecting exchange rates. In this study, we use unique daily data on currency interventions in Mongolia to analyze the impact of these interventions on the changes in the MNT/USD exchange rate. The results indicate that currency intervention is effective in Mongolia, although it differs in certain ways. Currency sales are effective in moving changes in the MNT/USD in the correct direction, especially when carried out in larger amounts and when implemented frequently. This effect can last from one to three weeks, although we find the magnitude of the daily effect to be relatively small. We do not find evidence, however, that currency purchases are effective. These findings are comparable to the existing literature on the effectiveness of intervention in EMEs.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Pontines & Davaajargal Luvsannyam & Enkhjin Atarbaatar & Ulziikhutag Munkhtsetseg, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Currency Intervention in a Commodity-Exporter: Evidence from Mongolia," Working Papers wp41, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:sea:wpaper:wp41
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    Keywords

    Currency intervention; exchange rate; treatment effect; causal effect; local projection; Mongolia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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